Hilde · Decision models · answer key v2

Chat model

Gemma 4 31B

reasoning off · 16 questions per request

73.1% of the 2,198 questions right (71.2% to 74.9%, 95% interval). Back to the leaderboard.

We also ran this setup at 1 question per request: Gemma 4 31B · reasoning off · 1 question per request.

How we called it

Kind
Chat model
Access
vLLM, self-hosted, FP8
Paid as
Our own hardware
Model ID
gemma-4-31B-it
Parameters
31.3B
Hardware
1 × RTX PRO 6000 Blackwell (96 GB); FP8 weights and KV cache
Confidence from
Answer letter probability
Run
119, 5 October 2026

Settings

Reasoning
off
Request format
16 questions per request
Requests at once
1
Temperature
not recorded
Harness seed
0
Harness commit
not recorded
Prompt version
not recorded

Results

QuestionsAccuracy95% intervalRight
All questions73.1%71.2% to 74.9%1,607 of 2,198
Reading90.9%88.4% to 92.8%596 of 656
Grammar65.6%63.2% to 67.9%1,011 of 1,542

Comparison group: o. Compare with another setup.

Accuracy by topic
TopicPartAccuracyRight
Word and phrase meaningsReading86.3%113 of 131
Sentence meaningsReading93.5%144 of 154
How a writer explains and develops ideasReading88.6%62 of 70
Topic and main point of a paragraphReading96.9%95 of 98
How a paragraph fits togetherReading84.0%89 of 106
Details that support a paragraph’s main pointReading95.9%93 of 97
Word types, such as nouns and verbsGrammar67.1%94 of 140
Groups of words built around a nounGrammar64.6%42 of 65
Verbs and their formsGrammar75.8%69 of 91
Verb forms used like nouns or modifiersGrammar79.2%57 of 72
Word endings and what they doGrammar68.4%54 of 79
How words are builtGrammar55.1%38 of 69
The roles of words and phrases in a sentenceGrammar64.1%93 of 145
How verbs show who acts and who receives the actionGrammar77.0%57 of 74
Types of sentencesGrammar68.2%58 of 85
Questions combining several grammar topicsGrammar49.5%109 of 220
Sound patterns and changesGrammar49.4%38 of 77
SpellingGrammar73.7%98 of 133
PunctuationGrammar70.1%82 of 117
Problems in sentence wordingGrammar69.7%122 of 175

Confidence

Answers kept at 99% or more
1,782, of which 332 wrong (share right: 79.5% to 83.1%, 95% interval); 416 skipped, the model less than 99% sure
Calibration gap
24.2 points
AUROC, all questions
0.83 0.82 to 0.85
AUROC, reading
0.88 0.85 to 0.92
AUROC, grammar
0.79 0.77 to 0.81
Brier score
0.242
Accuracy of its surest answers
most confident fifth: 98.6% right; most confident half: 94.3% right; most confident four fifths: 81.8% right
Typical score of a right answer
100.0%
Typical score of a wrong answer
99.5%

Repeats

Run 5 times on a sample of 200 questions.

Answers changed in 5 runs
0 of 200
Same wrong answer in all 5
59 of 200
Wrong in at least one run
59 of 200
Accuracy in each run
70.5%, 70.5%, 70.5%, 70.5%, 70.5%

Latency

Latency, median request
3.97 s (this run)
Latency, 90th percentile
4.26 s
Latency at 1 question per request
0.295 s median, on 200 questions
Requests at once
1
Throughput
245.3 questions per minute of request time
Request time
9.0 minutes, over the requests whose answers were kept

Latency: the time from sending one request to receiving its answer, measured from our computer, network and any retries within the request included. Request time: the time at least one request was in flight, over the requests whose answers were kept. It is not the run's elapsed time: it leaves out requests that failed and any pause before a run was resumed.

Cost

$ per 1,000 questions
Not measured
Basis
No dollar estimate; see hardware and time
Input tokens per question
223
Output tokens per question
9

Going first in front of an LLM

Replay of recorded answers, cutoff chosen on half the questions, averaged over the splits. Savings are estimates from API prices; the Method page explains how.

LLM behind itShare takenAccuracy changeSaving
Gemini 3.8 Flashhigh reasoning · 16 questions per request14.8%−0.09 points15%†
GPT-6 Astrahigh reasoning · 16 questions per request14.9%−0.09 points15%†
GPT-6.1 Solhigh reasoning · 16 questions per request14.9%−0.09 points15%†
GPT-6 Astralow reasoning · 16 questions per request14.9%−0.09 points15%†
GPT-6 Astralow reasoning · 1 question per request14.6%−0.09 points15%†
Gemini 3.8 Flashlow reasoning · 1 question per request15.2%−0.10 points15%†
GPT-6.1 Sollow reasoning · 1 question per request16.9%−0.13 points17%†
GPT-6.1 Sollow reasoning · 16 questions per request14.9%−0.09 points15%†
Claude Opus 5.5high reasoning · 16 questions per request15.1%−0.10 points15%†
GPT-6.1 Terrahigh reasoning · 16 questions per request17.6%−0.12 points18%†
Claude Opus 5.5low reasoning · 1 question per request16.5%−0.15 points17%†
Gemini 3.8 Flashlow reasoning · 16 questions per request16.9%−0.09 points17%†
GPT-6.1 Terralow reasoning · 16 questions per request15.4%−0.11 points15%†
Claude Opus 5.5low reasoning · 16 questions per request15.0%−0.10 points15%†
Claude Sonnet 5.5high reasoning · 1 question per request26.2%−0.40 points26%†
Claude Sonnet 5.5high reasoning · 16 questions per request60.9%−0.12 points61%†

† Leaves out the first model’s hardware cost, which we have not estimated.