Hilde · Decision models · answer key v2

Chat model

Claude Fable 5.1

high reasoning · 16 questions per request

96.1% of the 2,198 questions right (95.2% to 96.9%, 95% interval). Back to the leaderboard.

How we called it

Kind
Chat model
Access
Claude Code CLI, Claude subscription
Paid as
Subscription
Model ID
claude-fable-5-1
Confidence from
Written estimate
Run
310, 28 October 2026

Settings

Reasoning
high
Request format
16 questions per request
Requests at once
1
Temperature
not recorded
Harness seed
0
Harness commit
0fe372a4a068
Prompt version
254597b8be16

Results

QuestionsAccuracy95% intervalRight
All questions96.1%95.2% to 96.9%2,113 of 2,198
Reading95.6%93.7% to 96.9%627 of 656
Grammar96.4%95.3% to 97.2%1,486 of 1,542

Comparison group: de. Compare with another setup.

Accuracy by topic
TopicPartAccuracyRight
Word and phrase meaningsReading95.4%125 of 131
Sentence meaningsReading97.4%150 of 154
How a writer explains and develops ideasReading91.4%64 of 70
Topic and main point of a paragraphReading98.0%96 of 98
How a paragraph fits togetherReading91.5%97 of 106
Details that support a paragraph’s main pointReading97.9%95 of 97
Word types, such as nouns and verbsGrammar96.4%135 of 140
Groups of words built around a nounGrammar96.9%63 of 65
Verbs and their formsGrammar100.0%91 of 91
Verb forms used like nouns or modifiersGrammar98.6%71 of 72
Word endings and what they doGrammar98.7%78 of 79
How words are builtGrammar95.7%66 of 69
The roles of words and phrases in a sentenceGrammar95.9%139 of 145
How verbs show who acts and who receives the actionGrammar100.0%74 of 74
Types of sentencesGrammar98.8%84 of 85
Questions combining several grammar topicsGrammar94.1%207 of 220
Sound patterns and changesGrammar94.8%73 of 77
SpellingGrammar96.2%128 of 133
PunctuationGrammar92.3%108 of 117
Problems in sentence wordingGrammar96.6%169 of 175

Confidence

Answers kept at 99% or more
0, of which 0 wrong; 2,198 skipped, the model less than 99% sure
Calibration gap
12.0 points
AUROC, all questions
0.86 0.82 to 0.89
AUROC, reading
0.93 0.88 to 0.97
AUROC, grammar
0.82 0.76 to 0.87
Brier score
0.049
Accuracy of its surest answers
most confident fifth: 99.9% right; most confident half: 99.5% right; most confident four fifths: 98.6% right
Typical score of a right answer
90.0%
Typical score of a wrong answer
60.0%

Repeats

We did not repeat this setup.

Latency

Latency, median request
30.3 s (this run)
Latency, 90th percentile
64.4 s
Requests at once
1
Throughput
27.1 questions per minute of request time
Request time
81.1 minutes, over the requests whose answers were kept

Latency: the time from sending one request to receiving its answer, measured from our computer, network and any retries within the request included. Request time: the time at least one request was in flight, over the requests whose answers were kept. It is not the run's elapsed time: it leaves out requests that failed and any pause before a run was resumed.

Cost

$ per 1,000 questions
$17.04
Whole run
$37.46
Basis
Subscription run priced as if we had used the API
Price
$10 input, $0.25 cached input, $12.50 5-minute cache writes, $20 1-hour cache writes, $50 output per 1M tokens (source, 2026-10-28)
Input tokens per question
564
Output tokens per question
174